All the day’s economic and financial news, including the latest trade figures from China and a Bank of England Agents report
Wall Street banks: Brexit ‘point of no return’ looms
Chinese exports fell last month
US trade gap still wide as Trump arrives
Graeme Wearden
Wednesday 8 November 2017 08.28 GMT
Topics FT: Wall St warns Trump team of Brexit fears
Brexit continues to loom over the City of London, as the clock ticks towards 31 March 2019 when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.
The Financial Times reports that major banks warned the US commerce secretary last week that they will soon start shifting jobs out of London, unless there is more clarity.
The Wall Street titans, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, reportedly cited Britain’s unstable government and the lack of progress in planning Britain’s future.
Collectively they employ tens of thousands of people in the City.
Crucially, they warned Wilbur Ross that they are approaching the “point of no return” -- where they have to trigger their Hard Brexit contingency plans and begin shifting jobs, capital and infrastructure overseas.
As the FT puts it :
Those briefed on the talks, which were held over lunch at Wilton’s restaurant in London’s exclusive St James’s district, said the banks were particularly concerned by the failure of Britain to provide clarity over whether it will secure a transition deal to smooth the changing regulatory regime after the UK leaves the EU.
They warned they had even less clarity over what a final Brexit deal will look like.
Absent clarity from the government about post-Brexit plans, the executives said jobs would move back to the US or to other European capitals as banks begin to enact their worst-case contingency plans, the sources said.
”There was broad discussion around the lack of progress in the Brexit talks and some discussion around various political scenarios,” one person briefed on the talks said.
UK business chiefs have also been urging Theresa May’s government to nail a transition deal by the end of this year. So, with Wall Street’s major players getting nervous, the pressure is growing.
The City of London Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo
(@JolyonMaugham)
Donald Trump warned of our chaos.
Just let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/Y5dAbCiJtw
November 7, 2017 Jo Maugham QC
Updated at 8.28am GMT
China’s trade figures landed shortly before Donald Trump touched down in Beijing for a state visit.
And I’m sure the president will want to know that China posted a trade surplus of $26.6bn with the US in October. That’s $1.5bn less than in September, but 12% higher than in October 2016.
It means that China has racked up a trade surplus with the US of $223 billion so far this year, on track to match 2016’s total, despite Trump’s promises to trim it.
US and Chinese companies are expected to sign several commercial deals during Trump’s visit (these agreements are typically lined up to give politicians some good news to share).
The South China Posts says Beijing has four key goals :
President Donald Trump and Melania Trump arriving in Beijing today for a state visit. Photograph: Xinhua / Barcroft Images
1 Persuade Washington to lift export restrictions on hi-tech products, so US firms could sell more to China
2 Create more cooperation between the US and China in research and development in fields such as space and aviation
3 Boost US participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative - a massive economic expansion drive - and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
4 Press the US to tone down its probe into alleged Chinese IP violation
Updated at 8.25am GMT
The agenda: Chinese trade data disappoints
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
New trade figures from China have missed expectations, which may be a sign that global growth isn’t as punchy as we hoped.
Chinese export growth slowed to 6.9% in October, below expectations of 7.2% growth, and down on September’s robust 8.1%.
Import growth also slower, rising by 17.2% last month after a blistering 18.7% in September.
The figures could signal that China’s economy, after a solid year, is flagging a little this autumn -- as Beijing cracks down on pollution and tries to shift from manufacturing to services.
Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard says:
“The big picture is that both outbound and inbound shipments have softened recently, a trend that continued last month.
“We suspect that this reflects a slight easing of growth in other emerging markets along with weaker domestic demand as a result of slower infrastructure spending.”
Mubina Kapasi , analyst at ET Now , points out that China imported less iron ore than usual, and also shipped out less steel.
Given China’s key role in the world economy, these trade figures may weigh on European stock markets today.
David Madden of CMC Markets says:
China is making a concerted effort to move towards a more service focused economy. That being said, their demand for minerals is still a major driver of commodity prices and mining companies.
The agenda:
High street retailer Marks & Spencer, housebuilder Persimmon , energy group SSE and pub chain JD Wetherspoons are all reporting results.
Wall Street banks: Brexit ‘point of no return’ looms
Chinese exports fell last month
US trade gap still wide as Trump arrives
Graeme Wearden
Wednesday 8 November 2017 08.28 GMT
Topics FT: Wall St warns Trump team of Brexit fears
Brexit continues to loom over the City of London, as the clock ticks towards 31 March 2019 when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.
The Financial Times reports that major banks warned the US commerce secretary last week that they will soon start shifting jobs out of London, unless there is more clarity.
The Wall Street titans, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, reportedly cited Britain’s unstable government and the lack of progress in planning Britain’s future.
Collectively they employ tens of thousands of people in the City.
Crucially, they warned Wilbur Ross that they are approaching the “point of no return” -- where they have to trigger their Hard Brexit contingency plans and begin shifting jobs, capital and infrastructure overseas.
As the FT puts it :
Those briefed on the talks, which were held over lunch at Wilton’s restaurant in London’s exclusive St James’s district, said the banks were particularly concerned by the failure of Britain to provide clarity over whether it will secure a transition deal to smooth the changing regulatory regime after the UK leaves the EU.
They warned they had even less clarity over what a final Brexit deal will look like.
Absent clarity from the government about post-Brexit plans, the executives said jobs would move back to the US or to other European capitals as banks begin to enact their worst-case contingency plans, the sources said.
”There was broad discussion around the lack of progress in the Brexit talks and some discussion around various political scenarios,” one person briefed on the talks said.
UK business chiefs have also been urging Theresa May’s government to nail a transition deal by the end of this year. So, with Wall Street’s major players getting nervous, the pressure is growing.
The City of London Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo
(@JolyonMaugham)
Donald Trump warned of our chaos.
Just let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/Y5dAbCiJtw
November 7, 2017 Jo Maugham QC
Updated at 8.28am GMT
China’s trade figures landed shortly before Donald Trump touched down in Beijing for a state visit.
And I’m sure the president will want to know that China posted a trade surplus of $26.6bn with the US in October. That’s $1.5bn less than in September, but 12% higher than in October 2016.
It means that China has racked up a trade surplus with the US of $223 billion so far this year, on track to match 2016’s total, despite Trump’s promises to trim it.
US and Chinese companies are expected to sign several commercial deals during Trump’s visit (these agreements are typically lined up to give politicians some good news to share).
The South China Posts says Beijing has four key goals :
President Donald Trump and Melania Trump arriving in Beijing today for a state visit. Photograph: Xinhua / Barcroft Images
1 Persuade Washington to lift export restrictions on hi-tech products, so US firms could sell more to China
2 Create more cooperation between the US and China in research and development in fields such as space and aviation
3 Boost US participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative - a massive economic expansion drive - and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
4 Press the US to tone down its probe into alleged Chinese IP violation
Updated at 8.25am GMT
The agenda: Chinese trade data disappoints
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
New trade figures from China have missed expectations, which may be a sign that global growth isn’t as punchy as we hoped.
Chinese export growth slowed to 6.9% in October, below expectations of 7.2% growth, and down on September’s robust 8.1%.
Import growth also slower, rising by 17.2% last month after a blistering 18.7% in September.
The figures could signal that China’s economy, after a solid year, is flagging a little this autumn -- as Beijing cracks down on pollution and tries to shift from manufacturing to services.
Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard says:
“The big picture is that both outbound and inbound shipments have softened recently, a trend that continued last month.
“We suspect that this reflects a slight easing of growth in other emerging markets along with weaker domestic demand as a result of slower infrastructure spending.”
Mubina Kapasi , analyst at ET Now , points out that China imported less iron ore than usual, and also shipped out less steel.
Given China’s key role in the world economy, these trade figures may weigh on European stock markets today.
David Madden of CMC Markets says:
China is making a concerted effort to move towards a more service focused economy. That being said, their demand for minerals is still a major driver of commodity prices and mining companies.
The agenda:
High street retailer Marks & Spencer, housebuilder Persimmon , energy group SSE and pub chain JD Wetherspoons are all reporting results.
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